The 2025 season hasn’t been kind to the Arizona Cardinals — injuries to key players like Kyler Murray and the early-season loss of James Conner have forced bettors to adjust. Still, the Arizona Cardinals betting trends reveal surprising angles and trends worth knowing if you plan to wager on Arizona.
Let’s dive into how the Cardinals have fared against the spread, totals, and how betting behavior has shifted in light of roster changes.
Get information about Arizona sports betting here: Arizona Sports Betting Guide
Overview: Cardinals’ 2025 Betting Context
With Kyler Murray sidelined (rehab for injury) and James Conner out for the season, the Cardinals have leaned heavily on secondary players, rookie quarterback options, and a more run-focused scheme.
Despite these setbacks, betting markets have reacted in interesting ways. Some lines have softened more than expected, giving value opportunities especially in in-game and under markets.
1. Against the Spread (ATS): Still Holding Strong
Even in a down year, the Cardinals have remained somewhat resilient in covering spreads.
- ATS Record: ~3–4 (through midseason)
- Home ATS: 2–2
- Average Margin vs Spread: +2.5 points
Particularly, in games where Arizona is given +7 or more points, they’ve covered in nearly 60% of those spots — indicating sportsbooks may be overestimating decline due to injuries.
Notable Trend:
When Arizona is an underdog by at least a touchdown, the line tends to overreact downward; those games often finish closer than expected.
2. Over/Under (Totals) Trends: The Under Still Dominant
With offensive firepower diminished, unders have become more common in Cardinals games this season.
- Over/Under Record: 2 Overs, 5 Unders
- Average Total Points: ~38
- Vegas Average Line: 43
Because the team is now more conservative on offense, totals that were once expected to hit 45–48 now frequently land in the low 40s, making Under bets more attractive.
3. Moneyline & Value in Upsets
Despite roster issues, Arizona has delivered a few surprise wins.
- As underdogs, they’ve pulled off victories against stronger teams, especially in divisional matchups where oddsmakers may underestimate their resilience.
While large-moneyline bets remain high risk, moderate underdog bets (e.g. +150 to +200) have proven to offer smart value, especially early in the game, before line adjustments.
4. First-Half Patterns & Live Betting Implications
With the offense now simplified and defense becoming the focal point, the Cardinals have exhibited interesting first-half behavior:
- First-Half ATS: 4–3 (they tend to perform better early)
- Second-Half ATS: 1–4 (fatigue and in-game adjustments often hurt them)
For live bettors, the smart move is often taking value in the first half, then reassessing at halftime rather than backing them deeper into the game.
5. Player Props & Roster Replacement Dynamics
Without Kyler Murray and James Conner, many props tied to their production are irrelevant for now.
Instead, bettors should focus on:
- New quarterbacks or backups — their rushing lines or passing completions.
- Receivers stepping up — targets, receptions, and yards for primary receivers.
- Team-level props — total team points or rushing yard props, which may be more stable than individual lines given roster uncertainty.
For example, receivers like Marquise Brown (if active) or other target-heavy receivers may continue to hit Over lines as defensive attention remains split.
6. Public Betting Behavior & Market Bias
With the injuries, the public has broadly fallen out of the plaintiff’s side, leading to heavy fading of Arizona in many games.
Public bet share on Arizona often drops below 30%, especially when they’re listed as underdogs. But ATS outcomes show they’re overdelivering relative to public expectations — a classic contrarian edge.
If you’re a value bettor, fading the public in games with soft lines has been a strong strategy.
7. Best Situations to Consider Betting Arizona in 2025
Given current conditions, these are trend-based angles that offer value:
- Arizona +7 to +10 at home — they often keep games tighter than expected
- Live betting on Arizona in the first half — they tend to start stronger
- Taking unders in games with total lines above 44
- Betting moderate underdog moneylines in divisional games
Avoid betting them as heavy favorites — the odds of overperformance are lower given roster strain.
Final Thoughts
Even with major injuries to Murray and Conner, the Arizona Cardinals still offer betting value — particularly in under markets, first-half plays, and modest underdog bets.
Lines have softened more than they should in spots, and public bias remains against them — creating smart opportunities for bettors who follow the trends.
If you’re looking for insight into how FanDuel, BetMGM, or other sportsbooks are adjusting lines around these trends, check out our Sportsbook Review Pages or Live Betting 101 post.